Alberta referendum: Yes projected on five questions, No favoured on three

Albertans appear set to approve five of the nine policy questions on Monday’s referendum ballot, but three questions that currently show Yes ahead or close are projected to fail as the count continues, according to Mainstreet Research.

Mainstreet’s live results model, which uses Elections Alberta’s unofficial count, projects Yes will win the questions on immigration control, program eligibility, residency requirements for social supports, fees for non-permanent residents and proof of citizenship to vote.

The model favours No on three of the four constitutional questions: having provinces select judges for the Court of King’s Bench and Court of Appeal, letting provinces opt out of federal programs without losing funding, and giving provincial laws priority over conflicting federal laws. The question on abolishing the Senate leans Yes, but is still too close to call.

Counting on the policy questions is well behind the count on Question 10. As of 3:20 p.m. Tuesday, between 69 and 76 per cent of polls had reported on questions 1 through 9, compared with 89 per cent on Question 10, according to Elections Alberta.

Question	Yes now	Projected Yes	Mainstreet
1. More provincial control over immigration	54.1%	54.6%	Yes projected
2. Limit provincial programs to citizens, PRs and approved status	55.0%	53.2%	Yes projected
3. 12-month residency for social supports	57.7%	54.8%	Yes projected
4. Fees for non-permanent residents	57.1%	53.8%	Yes projected
5. Proof of citizenship to vote	63.5%	60.7%	Yes projected
6. Provinces select King’s Bench and Appeal judges	51.4%	47.9%	No favoured
7. Abolish the Senate	53.7%	51.1%	Yes leans
8. Opt out of federal programs with funding	49.2%	47.2%	No favoured
9. Provincial laws take priority	51.4%	48.5%	No favoured

Yes now: Elections Alberta unofficial results as of 3:20 p.m. Tuesday. Projected Yes: Mainstreet Research estimate of the final share.

The close ones

On Question 6, Yes leads 599,285 to 565,611, but Mainstreet estimates Yes will finish at about 47.9 per cent and gives it roughly a seven per cent chance of passing.

Question 9 shows a similar pattern. Yes leads 564,313 to 534,628, but the model projects a final Yes share of 48.5 per cent, with about an 18 per cent chance of passing.

No already leads on Question 8, 553,547 to 537,056, and the model gives Yes about a five per cent chance.

On the Senate question, Yes leads 595,150 to 513,055. Mainstreet projects Yes at 51.1 per cent, with about a 73 per cent chance of passing.

Remain holds

Remain continues to lead on Question 10 with 1,451,895 votes, or 75.2 per cent, to 477,826 for beginning the process toward a binding vote on separation. Mainstreet has called the question for Remain and projects a final share of about 74.8 per cent.

Southeastern Alberta

Local ridings voted Yes on all nine policy questions by wider margins than the province as a whole.

In Brooks-Medicine Hat, with 71 of 73 polls reporting, Yes ranged from 61.4 per cent on Question 8 to 72.1 per cent on proof of citizenship. Remain had 63.2 per cent.

In Cypress-Medicine Hat, where all 59 polls have reported on Question 10, Remain had 68.1 per cent. Yes ranged from 56.7 per cent on Question 8 to 71.3 per cent on proof of citizenship, with some polls still out on the policy questions.

Taber-Warner posted the strongest Yes results in the region, above 69 per cent on every policy question, while Remain had 53.7 per cent there.

All results are unofficial. Elections Alberta is still counting, and official results will follow.