Guthrie says Smith has no path to election after alienating both sides of referendum

Peter Guthrie, who leads the Progressive Tory Party of Alberta after being removed from the UCP caucus, said Thursday that Premier Danielle Smith has alienated both federalists and separatists and cannot repair the damage before a provincial election roughly 11 months away.

Guthrie made the remarks during a live interview on Real Talk with Ryan Jespersen, streamed Oct. 22. Smith's office said Guthrie is out of touch with Albertans and peddling misinformation, The Canadian Press reported.

Monday's referendum saw roughly 75 per cent of voters choose Option 1, remaining in Canada, while about 25 per cent — approximately 518,828 voters — chose Option 2, beginning a formal separation process.

"Right now, they've pissed off the pro-Canada people and the separatists at the same time," Guthrie said during the interview. "It's unbelievable. So who's left? But eventually, when you create those enemies, the bodies pile up, and eventually you reach a threshold where you've created more enemies than you have supporters, and you get — your government gets usurped."

Guthrie, who served as infrastructure minister before his removal from caucus, said he had asked cabinet to call a public inquiry after uncovering what he described as potential corruption related to recovery centre contracts. "I went to cabinet — I went to ministers directly initially, then I went to cabinet. I was asking them to do the right thing, to do what conservatives should do: should be accountable. We should be transparent," he said.

When host Ryan Jespersen raised the possibility that viewers would say Guthrie had an axe to grind, Guthrie said he did not see it that way. "I'd say I was happy I got kicked out of the party," he said.

Asked whether the UCP and his Progressive Tory Party could reunite, Guthrie said any merger was effectively impossible under Smith's leadership team. "Under this administration, if the UCP wants to have any shot, they would have to get rid entirely of this leadership team, wholesale changes there, bring somebody else in," he said. He predicted Smith will nonetheless lead the party into the next election. "I do. Unless you convince her that it's time to step away, there's no reason why they would make a change."

Guthrie also said he believed 10 to 12 UCP MLAs hold separatist leanings and that separatist factions plan to attempt a takeover of the party board at the UCP annual general meeting, scheduled for Nov. 27 and 28, including a motion to convert the UCP from a federalist to a separatist party.

"That is who she courted," Guthrie said of separatist figures around Smith. "We are in the situation that we are today because Danielle Smith courted these individuals... And it had to be because there were promises made."

Smith addressed the fallout at a Calgary media availability on Oct. 21, in remarks posted in full to YouTube. She said the referendum result was a clear mandate and that she would not hold another one on the question of separation. "The mandate from Albertans was clear: Alberta will remain a province of Canada, and our government will work cooperatively with Albertans, the federal government, and our fellow provinces to secure a prosperous future for our province and our country," she said.

Smith said anyone who wants to run as a UCP candidate or serve in an official party role must accept that mandate, adding that those who cannot should seek out other parties. "Those who cannot, they have opportunities through other political parties," she said. She said she was committing the party to that federalist position immediately. "I'm doing that today. I'm doing that today. I'm saying that we accept the results that we were given by a mandate from the people."

Smith acknowledged that some Option 2 voters may not have been committed separatists. "There are many who I spoke with who were mad, there were many who wanted to send a message, there were many who thought it would give me more leverage in negotiating with Ottawa," she said. She said support for beginning a formal separation process had fallen from 45 per cent at the start of the referendum process to 25 per cent on voting day.

Smith also thanked Jason Stephan, the UCP MLA for Red Deer-South, who publicly said he voted Option 2 and is not seeking re-election. Scott Sinclair, MLA for Lesser Slave Lake, returned to the UCP caucus.

The Progressive Tory Party plans to field 91 candidates. The UCP's annual general meeting is set for Nov. 27 and 28. The Alberta legislature resumes Oct. 27.